Model Predictions
| Model | Stetson | Lipscomb | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.0% | 37.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lipscomb +23 (87-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.