Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland State | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +13 (76-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.