Model Predictions
| Model | East Tennessee State | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Davidson -15 (72-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.