Model Predictions
| Model | Akron | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +16 (74-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.