Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Commonwealth | Drexel | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Drexel -13 (59-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.