Model Predictions
| Model | Loyola (IL) | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Wright State -2 (69-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.