Model Predictions
| Model | Centenary (LA) | Lipscomb | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lipscomb +10 (85-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.