Model Predictions
| Model | Appalachian State | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +13 (99-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.