Model Predictions
| Model | Idaho | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly -3 (65-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.