Model Predictions
| Model | Youngstown State | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +12 (80-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.