Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois–Chicago | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.3% | 18.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.4% | 18.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State -13 (76-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.