Model Predictions
| Model | Eastern Kentucky | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.5% | 91.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.5% | 85.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.1% | 95.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +12 (92-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.