Model Predictions
| Model | Buffalo | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.9% | 89.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +10 (87-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.