Model Predictions
| Model | UNC Greensboro | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.5% | 87.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +11 (83-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.