Model Predictions
| Model | Lipscomb | Centenary (LA) | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.3% | 89.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Centenary (LA) +11 (93-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.