Model Predictions
| Model | Jacksonville State | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +12 (74-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.