Model Predictions
| Model | Furman | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.6% | 87.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.3% | 90.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.2% | 90.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +8 (65-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.