Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Northridge | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly -19 (54-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.