Model Predictions
| Model | Campbell | Lipscomb | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lipscomb +25 (80-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.