Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +12 (72-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.