Model Predictions
| Model | Central Michigan | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall -3 (78-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.