Model Predictions
| Model | Southern | Jackson State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.8% | 83.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Jackson State +20 (86-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.