Model Predictions
| Model | Austin Peay | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.4% | 90.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Murray State -3 (63-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.