Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +21 (79-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.