Model Predictions
| Model | Alcorn State | Jackson State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Jackson State +4 (76-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.