Model Predictions
| Model | Western Carolina | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.1% | 94.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.0% | 95.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +17 (83-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.