Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Mercy | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +3 (67-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.