Model Predictions
| Model | Mount St. Mary's | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.8% | 92.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.1% | 95.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor +33 (80-47). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.