Model Predictions
| Model | The Citadel | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.0% | 89.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.2% | 86.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.7% | 96.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.6% | 96.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +14 (86-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.