Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Samford -1 (51-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.