Model Predictions
| Model | Montana | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.5% | 93.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.5% | 93.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +18 (84-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.