Model Predictions
| Model | Western Michigan | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.0% | 5.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.1% | 4.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall +12 (66-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.