Model Predictions
| Model | Texas–Rio Grande Valley | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.4% | 90.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor +28 (78-50). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.