Model Predictions
| Model | Chattanooga | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.0% | 92.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +30 (81-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.