Model Predictions
| Model | North Texas | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor +26 (82-56). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.