Score source: Sports-Reference box score.
Model Predictions
| Model | Tulsa | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cincinnati -8 (61-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Cincinnati, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.