Model Predictions
| Model | Iowa State | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 85.6% | 14.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.7% | 14.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.8% | 3.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.9% | 3.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 85.7% | 14.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor -12 (64-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Baylor, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.