Model Predictions
| Model | Miami (OH) | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall -6 (63-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Marshall, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.