Model Predictions
| Model | Navy | Colgate | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.4% | 15.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.2% | 6.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.3% | 6.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Colgate -26 (56-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Colgate, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.