Model Predictions
| Model | UTSA | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State +8 (77-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.