Model Predictions
| Model | Rider | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +5 (64-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Iona, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.