Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State | Eastern Illinois | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Eastern Illinois -19 (70-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Eastern Illinois, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.