Model Predictions
| Model | Vermont | Drexel | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Drexel +12 (71-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Drexel, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.