Model Predictions
| Model | Holy Cross | Colgate | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Colgate +9 (58-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Colgate, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.