Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Louis | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.1% | 94.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.4% | 97.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.3% | 97.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.2% | 87.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +43 (84-41). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.