Model Predictions
| Model | Iowa State | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.5% | 13.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 84.4% | 15.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.7% | 3.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.8% | 3.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor -21 (54-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.