Model Predictions
| Model | Loyola (MD) | Canisius | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Canisius +14 (83-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Canisius, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.