Model Predictions
| Model | California | UCLA | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UCLA +21 (83-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.