Model Predictions
| Model | Pacific | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly +9 (75-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.