Model Predictions
| Model | Buffalo | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.5% | 95.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.9% | 89.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.3% | 88.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +17 (83-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.